I provide technical analysis of biofuel and biochemical processes and companies for investors.
Since chemical processes can be very hard for non-chemical engineers to understand….. (the engineers often struggle with it too)
it often helps to convert complex chemistry, processes, and profit claims into analogies that people can more easily visualize…..
the people can quickly tell if the business model passes a:
“Smell Test”
(see examples)
Upgrading biomass feeds normally results in signficant weight losses. * To upgrade sugars to fuel, remove excess oxygen * Removed oxygen “pulls” Hydrogen (H) and Carbon (C) with in in form of H2O and CO2 * Maximum Yields depend on starting feeds and ending products, but not path chosen . Example of Balance Reaction Sugar…
A Focus on Yields and Raw Material Costs. * Most biofuel and commodity chemical companies profit margins depend highly on the margin between one commodity feed stock and one commodity product. * First focus on Maximum Theoretical Yields & resulting Minimum Product cost. (Raw Material Cost ($/lb))/(Theoretical Yield)=(Minimum Product Cost ($/lb)) *Later focus on energy,…
A systematic approach to analysis. 1-Does process make commercial sense or pass a “smell test”?? 2-Does process show that: what material goes in…..comes out? 3-Does process show that: you get less chemical energy out than goes in? 4-Are there any Business Model Disconnects? 5-Gibbs Free Energy Balances. 6-Detailed energy balances for Unit Operations. 7-Does design…
Does this investment pass the “Smell Test”??? *** Biomass is converted to a syngas (CO + H2) then reacted to make a fuel. The syngas made has the right amount of Carbon Monoxide (CO) to make a claimed amount of fuel, but is low on Hydrogen (H2), so the water shift reaction is used to…
Does this investment pass the “Smell Test”? *** A process converts 2 lbs of sugar into biofuels. (it also adds in 1 lb of methane.) Do you invest? ***Equivalent Analogy: I offer to buy both of us lunch an McDonalds. (While there, I pull $12 out of your wallet that “helps” pay for lunch.) Analysis:…
Does this investment pass a “Smell Test”? *** A process converts CO2 to a liquid fuel for cars by a new company. It also co-feeds to the reactor “a little bit” of methane. *** Equivalent Analogy: I have a process that converts 10 pounds of gravel to 8 pounds of gasoline…….wow……impressive……. The process also co-feeds…
Bloomdahl Engineering 